The forecast, and the Javits report to Congress

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1. A count of what is coming

Once a year the government writes down what it expects to sell. The weapons directorate leads it, and the scope is defined precisely. "This FMS Forecast process is the USG’s two-fiscal year (FY), forward-looking demand assessment of all FMS, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), and other USG-to-foreign government transfers from which an FMS Administrative Surcharge is collected" (SAMM C14.4.1).

The boundary is the surcharge rather than the weapon. A transfer counts if it carries the administrative surcharge, which is why financed cases and other government to government transfers sit alongside ordinary sales in the same count. What the surcharge is and which cases carry it is set out in what goes into the price.

The forecast is put to two uses. It informs the budget requirement the agency submits to the budget office, and it partly informs a report the state department sends to Congress under section 25(a) of the Arms Export Control Act (SAMM C14.4.1). One document therefore feeds both an internal money question and an external political one.

2. Built from the field upward

The estimate is a dollar total of the cases expected to be offered in the next two years (SAMM C14.4.2). It is not published. "This report is USG Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) and may not be distributed outside of the USG" (SAMM C14.4.2).

Collection starts at the embassies. In February the directorate asks the geographic combatant commands for a list, from each security cooperation office, of the transactions expected to carry the surcharge over the next two years (SAMM C14.4.2.1). The offices that sit closest to a partner ministry are the ones asked what that ministry is likely to buy. What those offices are and what else they do is described in the security cooperation organization.

The commands then consolidate. "The geographic CCMDs provide DSCA with aggregated input from the SCOs in their Area of Responsibility (AOR)" (SAMM C14.4.2.1). Review and refinement follow with internal and other defense stakeholders, and the result becomes the basis of the forecast.

One signature converts an estimate into a reference document. "Upon approval by the DSCA Director, the FMS Forecast becomes the official FMS Forecast that is distributed to relevant stakeholders within DoD" (SAMM C14.4.2.1).

3. The calendar the forecast runs on

The published timetable gives guidance to the offices in February, aggregated command submissions in late May or early June, and implementing agency submissions in late July or early August, with the agencies presenting revisions to the deputy director. Internal coordination runs through August, and director approval is sought in early September (SAMM Table C14.T2).

That leaves three months before the forecast is used for its second purpose. In December the directorate consolidates the transactions meeting the criteria for the congressional report and passes the sales data to the state department.

4. The report that goes to Congress

The second document has a fixed deadline and a different author. "By the first of February each year, Department of State, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs (State (PM)) prepares and transmits the annual Javits Report to Congress to highlight proposed arms sales expected for offer within the calendar year" (SAMM C14.4.3).

Two dollar thresholds decide what appears. "This report includes anticipated FMS and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) of major weapons and weapons-related defense equipment that meets or exceeds $7 million, or of any other weapons or weapons-related defense equipment that meets or exceeds $25 million and are considered eligible for Congressional Notification (CN) and approval" (SAMM C14.4.3). Commercial sales are counted alongside government to government ones, so the report covers both routes described in Foreign Military Sales or Direct Commercial Sales.

There is one carve out, and it follows from the report’s purpose. "State is not required to include anticipated sales that have already been notified to Congress" (SAMM C14.4.3). The report is about what is coming, not about what has already been through the review described in congressional notification of arms sales under 36(b).

5. Where the two documents meet

The December handover is not a simple copy. The state department asks the weapons directorate for a populated list of anticipated transactions meeting the criteria, and "This list may include a combination of new information and information extracted from the official FMS Forecast" (SAMM C14.4.3.1). The trade controls directorate supplies the commercial side separately.

Classification then works in an unexpected direction. "Individual country information is unclassified, unless under exceptional circumstances in which an FMS purchaser’s request is classified" (SAMM C14.4.3.1). Line by line the material is mostly open. Assembled, it is not: "The final Javits Report is classified" (SAMM C14.4.3.1).

The report does not end with delivery. "Within 30 days of report delivery, State leads Javits Report brief to House and Senate staffs with DSCA Director" (SAMM Table C14.T2), with the weapons directorate supporting.

6. What a supplier can take from this

Neither document is available to industry, so the practical value is in knowing they exist and when they are written. A requirement a partner raises with its embassy office early in the year is the material that feeds a February call. A case expected to be offered within two years is the kind of thing that count is built from.

The thresholds are worth holding on to for a different reason. A sale at or above seven million dollars for major equipment is already visible to Congress as an expectation before any notification is made, which means the eventual notification is rarely the first time a committee has seen the subject.

Key terms

FMS Forecast	A two year demand assessment of transfers carrying the administrative surcharge. SAMM C14.4.1.
Javits Report	The annual report to Congress of sales expected for offer in the calendar year, due by 1 February.
Seven and twenty five million	The two thresholds deciding what the report has to include.
Controlled unclassified information	The handling marking on the forecast, which keeps it inside the government.
Security cooperation office	The embassy office asked each February what its partner is likely to buy.

Every statement above links to the document behind it. The full source list for this piece is on the sources page.

This page describes public United States government programs for general information. It is not legal, regulatory or procurement advice, and it does not address the facts of any particular case.

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